Uncertainty is an Opportunity

We have a tendency to feel the same about risk as we do about uncertainty… but in fact, the two are starkly different. Risk can be expressed with mathematics as the probability of something bad happening; those calculations are the foundation of all insurance. Uncertainty doesn’t involve probabilities because it simply means not knowing: a future of either good, bad, or some unknown mix of the two. Given these definitions, risk is essentially an equation, while uncertainty might better be understood as a space. Taking that another step, we don’t need to feel foreboding in the space of uncertainty but can instead appreciate it as generative. 

In fact, it is the space of uncertainty that creates context for our efforts and possibility for our dreams. If the future were certain (as we often claim to want) efforts wouldn’t matter. I’m increasingly hopeful about uncertainty because it represents the space in which we can contribute to a better future. Today -- the gift we appropriately call the present -- is our opportunity to join the flow of history and influence that future with all the goodness we can give. 

Balance in Motion

The nudges of influence work in the space created by uncertainty. We know that balance is a big part of wisdom.

Balanced books.  Work life balance. Balanced diet. The exhortations toward balance are many and varied.

But what exactly is balance? The traditional approach seems to be like the balance of the scale; equal parts on both sides so that the arm of the scale is level and stable. This is certainly one approach, but it generally seems to lead to frustration and fatigue because much of what is on the scale – say ‘work’ and ‘life’ – don’t hold still. Achieving ‘balance’ today doesn’t help tomorrow because the needs and opportunities of both work and life are in constant flux. 

The rhythmic flow of seasons – balance in motion from the heat of summer to the cold of winter – is a different approach that can be much more useful. Balance in motion is a different type of balance that works with a world in flux. Life might be out of balance for today but only with a wider frame can we know if it’s out of balance over time. 

Don’t abandon the goal of balance, but take a longer view when considering how to best achieve balance in motion.

The Hand that Rocks the Cradle

Certainty and control, tall with chiseled muscles, talk loud and long about their accomplishments. “I did this.”  “I caused that.” Everyone watches in conflicted wonder as they stride around. Is that what making life better looks like?

Uncertainty and influence seem scrawny by comparison and watch quietly from the back. Trying not to be noticed so they don’t get more sand kicked in their face by certainty and don’t once again get their lunch money stolen by control. While uncertainty and influence do their work in the margins, they aren’t alone. They are surrounded by the young: young children, young ideas, young dreams. Just born potential that hasn’t learned any words. They are also surrounded by the big - ideas and dreams that are too big for certainty and too complex for control.

Uncertainty and influence don’t stride around, but they aren’t idle either. They stoop to nurture, pause to encourage and are frequently engaged in cycles of reflection, discussion and exploration. They are not sure they are making life better, but they are encouraged to see many of the young grow and make new and beautiful contributions.  Happy when any of their offspring nudge the world toward greater levels of health.

The nudges of influence work in the space created by uncertainty. 

Counter-Factual, Counter-Fantasy

The distance between what we spontaneously feel ‘should’ happen and what actually does happen becomes the yardstick our disappointment and frustration.

The concept of a ‘counter-factual’ is key to evaluation and good decision-making.  It helps us answer the question “what would have happened if the intervention (e.g. treatment, medication, program) hadn't been implemented?” When a new medication is being tested, for example, one group of participants will get a placebo, while another gets the real deal. The placebo group provides a 'counter-factual' to the treatment group, allowing researchers to measure the impact of the new medication.

 The challenge I’ve recently realized is my tendency to unconsciously confuse a counter-fantasy for a counter-factual. In most situations I can spontaneously feel what should happen; how the new software should behave, the time it should take to respond to an email, the decision the committee should make.  

These ‘shoulds’ are one form of a counter-fantasy. They only exist in my mind (and often our unconscious) but nonetheless become the fixed and emotionally relevant point against which I measure what actually does happen. The distance between these spontaneous imaginings and real-life results becomes the depth of my disappointment and breadth of my frustration. To make matters worse, I often exert considerable energy and feel sustained tension in an effort to get actual reality to live up to these spontaneous assumptions. 

A counter-factual provides a very helpful point of reference while a counter-fantasy often leads to disappointment, frustration and lost energy. Being attentive to the difference is a good step toward saving wasted energy and strain.

C̶a̶u̶s̶e̶ Contribution and Effect

What is the relationship between efforts and results in your life?

I’ve wrestled with this question over the last 10 years - both personally and in my work with nonprofit organizations that want to know if their programs are making a difference. Over these years, I’ve found that the most useful approaches somehow find a way to navigate twin truths:  

            1. The humbling fact that our efforts directly cause very little.

            2. The sobering fact that that our efforts contribute to almost everything. 

There are a range of simple situations (e.g. hammers and nails) where effects can be clearly and directly linked back to a single cause. By contrast, in complex situations (e.g. pandemics, parenting) our efforts don’t generally cause direct 1:1 change…but clearly contribute to the outcome.

Effective organizations and individuals use different approaches to allocate their limited energies for each of these realities and find a way to leverage both toward progress. Being clear about the distinction between cause and contribution is a good first step to maximizing traction and minimizing wasted energy.

Gardening our Lives

How many of our goals can we guarantee?

Approaching our personal and professional lives as gardeners is the best metaphor I’ve found for making sense of the constant interplay between the few things we can cause and the many over which we only have varying levels of influence or contribution.

Like gardeners, we can control some things: when we get out of bed in the morning, when we plow and plant (e.g. start new projects) and how faithfully we water and weed (e.g. sustain past projects). Like gardeners, we can be confident that our efforts are necessary – efforts are needed to contribute to success.  At the same time, very few of the factors in our control actually cause success.  Just as gardens are impacted by larger systems like weather, seasons and pests, our lives and organizations are interdependent on larger systems like genetics, relationships, and the economy.

Like with gardening, the efforts we exert in our families, jobs, and communities are in a perpetual limbo between clearly being necessary while at the same time not being fully sufficient to reach our goals. The big results we work for – our personal dreams and corporate missions - are beyond our direct grasp. I’ve found gardening to be such a helpful metaphor because it underscores the need for simultaneous agency (knowledge that our efforts can make a difference) and humility (knowledge that we play a small part).  Additionally – and this is key – the gardening metaphor clarifies that all our efforts are part of a larger complex system. Within this context, effective life-gardeners embrace two truths:

• Doing what we can do well is essential.  

• Holding the result loosely is wise because the harvest is dependent on forces outside our control.